个人觉得还会有个快速探底起稳的过程，此后重回牛市轨道，真正有效益业绩增长迅速的企业会收到基金的追捧。

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛一方面,这次西方国家联手注入银行系统的资金达到3260亿美圆,通过银行信用的杠杆作用,这些资金将起到至少一万亿美圆的市场稳定作用.一旦,拯救行动在不久后宣告失败,那基本是1929年以来资本主义世界最广泛最猛烈经济危机爆发的前兆,不是战后任何一次经济危机可以比拟的.但是从目前西方的反应看, 他们处理问题的速度与力度都是惊人人,至少现在有理由相信短期里金融全面崩盘的出现概率很小.但是,其对西方经济带来直接负面影响不可避免,处理不当即使不发生全面危机,次贷风潮使西方经济的繁荣迅速走向衰退不是梦呓.


另一方面,从本次干预力度来看,美国次贷风潮的实际问题要远远超过目前公开披露的任何程度.如何吸收坏帐与消化社会不良反应的损失,对于即将在明年举行大选的美国来说,对于急需通过振兴经济赶快走出大选失利的日本来说,对于迫切要求加快全面改革的德国与法国来说这些都是不能承受之重.那么谁来承受危机?这是一个问题.

最后一方面,本轮市场的大规模干预行为,无疑为政府与监管部门更广泛的介入金融与资本市场开了绿灯.其参与的范围不仅将在短期里达到历史上前所未有的程度,更可能将在今后很长一段时间里成为金融领域的一种真正意义上的主导力量.无论这样的努力实际有效,或者是否长期有效,一个我们曾经熟悉的游戏规则从 2007年8月9日开始走向死亡,是卒死还是缓慢走向衰亡只是时间与方式的问题.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

至于股市，可能有影响，但影响不是一比一的。因为加拿大是staple经济，从而决定其大多数企业的全球性的经济特性，那些内需的企业会受打击，如bell, rogers, loblaw等；但那些全球性的或外需的就会较少波动，如石油，矿业，或者是RIM，NT等等。

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛one thing is true that the liquidity crench surprised lot of economist including Feb because the mainstream thinking is: there is over-liquidity issue in American market, not the opposite and for exactly this reason and inflation concern, Feb refused to drop key lending rate even when US growth slowed down dramatically at the beginning of the year.
Bernake kept aloft to this problem becoz he believed that subprime thing can be contained and not spread to other field of economic sector... it is partly ture though... there is no obvious sign that it has bee spread to other sectors but it is not contained.. it is become a much larger woe to the financial market. Recent both ISM reading show that US is still growing but at a slower speed. there is no instant risk of recession.
I personally don't believe the same thing will happen to Canadian housing market for several reason.. first, for the house/apartment sold in Canada, new family formation ratio is 70%--around 70% of the unit sold to end user (forming new family), only 30% buyers are second house buyers or investors.. therefore market is less frothy than US's. Although as house price go up sharply, house become less affordable but still reasonably priced considering the debt service ratio. house price might slow down but won't experience severe correct like the one we see in state.

However, subprime thing will spread to other sectors in the end, people who default on mortgage will default on credit card, car loan or other house appliance purchase loan etc and other industrial will feel the pinch in the end. it will slow US's economy finally and canada, as the largest trading partner of us (80% total trade with US) will feel the pain in the end.

Canada has its own problem.. it is that its economy is running above potential capacity and generate inflation, and central bank has to decide whether to raise rate to fight the inflation. obviously it will have a hard time making decision-- fight inflation first or inject liquidity.. .???

without further data to support how big a problem in canada in term of subprime loan.. or liar loan as dubbed in US, I can't give comment on the likelihood of such crisis happening in canada, most major banks in canada had strict guidance as to income confirmation, personally I don't believe same thing will happen in canada but canada will negatively impacted by the crisis from south of border..更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net